BC Rugby Weekend of September 7th 2019

September 07 2019


BCRN 2019
©

BC Premier Weekend Results: Lakers Ground T-Birds; Ravens Dump Saracens, Bays Upset Rowers; Vikes Pummel CW; Caps Top Lomas - Pacific Pride Sting Hornets



We're starting a new season and a new format for predictions. As usual the Editor will give his weekly predictions but joining him will be a team of "experts" and we'll keep score throughout the season to see whose prediction style is the most accurate. Let me introduce the panel of prognosticators.

Aaron Takel - head of men's rugby at BCRU, Aaron is going to use statistical analysis from the current season to drive his predictions. BC Rugby will be coding all games and producing statistical reports for each game and for the league as a whole. He will use those stats to provide an analytical perspective.

Robin MacDowell - head of MacDowell Rugby, a 7s specialist, he's returned to BC from Saskatchewan and is helping to coach the Vikes (he's also a former Vikes player), so it may take him a while to get up to speed on the other teams in the BC Premier but we expect a slight prediction weighting towards the Vikes in their matches.

Brian Moylett - Brian is assistant coach of the BC Womens team and plays with the Ravens also recently played for the BC All Stars vs Canada. Previously he played underage for Ireland (with Peter Nelson actually) and captained the Connacht Rugby U20 side (that included Jack Carty and Robbie Henshaw). We expect a slight pro-Ravens weighting on his predictions.

Brett - Brett is a long time player in the BC leagues, he wants to remain anonymous so he can freely express his views without fear of his mates hanging him upside down in the change room. We'll see if his prediction patterns reveal more.

We'll award 1 point for predicting the correct winner (or a draw if predicted), a +2 bonus point for also getting the point differential spot on - which is a rare occurance. Let the games begin, and we'll figure out what the winner receives by the end of the season, suggestions/prize donations welcome.

Results at a Glance



BURNABY LAKE 10 V UBC 3 @ 14:30 @ Burnaby Lake
Ref David Smortchevsky

A low scoring match, likely the only time this season that UBC will be held to 3 points. One try in the match by Burnaby, more to come in Burnaby match report.

PREGAME

Editor: UBC have a poor record in their first match of the season, losing to Rowers last year and losing to Burnaby 19-11 the year before that. UBC haven't won their opening match the last two years and we like historical patterns in our prediction models. It takes UBC a while to get that high performance machine running efficiently although they played a season of Rugby League this summer, will that help? Burnaby have James Kelly this year, over from the Rowers and previously Surrey. He's ranked high as an elite hooker. Lucas Albornoz has returned as well, he played for Northland in the Mitre 10 Cup in NZ last year. Burnaby lost the two Vikilani's to the Pacific Pride so that will hurt their forward depth. UBC have a host of Carsons, one starting and two on the bench. A lot of former (and likely current) U20 talent on display. Mike Smith will captain the side. They'll no doubt end up near the top of the table by April but historically they've started slow. Prediction: Burnaby by 6.

Aaron: Last season saw UBC have a more efficient scrum which could be key in the game due it being the first game of the year, team cohesion may be low with more mistakes than average for each team. Burnaby will need to continue their form from last season which saw them have on average less missed tackles and handling errors per game than UBC. Burnaby did see a more efficient lineout last season but for this weekend’s game the scrum may provide more of an impact on the outcome of the game. UBC conceded on average 4 less penalties per game than Burnaby. If this trend continues, UBC may be able to take advantage of the momentum penalties will provide them. Building on this, UBC also had a lightly better goal kicking average, which might provide the edge needed if the game is close. UBC scored an average of 5.6 tries per game last year, in comparison to Burnaby’s 4.6, both teams slightly above the league average. In addition, UBC had the highest positive points differential in the league. Prediction: UBC win 36-29 (+7)

Brett: I see Burnaby winning this one, the universities not having much time together to begin with. Burnaby at home, early, will keep it tight and grind out a win. Burnaby +6

Robin: UBC by 31-17 (+14)

Brian: Burnaby by +4

Burnaby

1. Adrian Longbone
2. James Kelly
3. Chris Atkinson
4. Michael O'Toole
5. Tom Dear
6. Lucas Albornoz
7. Joey Tomlinson
8. Toi Callum
9. Geoffrey Ryan
10. Hayden Munck
11. Dan Josok
12. Neil Maclaine
13. Ben Mcdougall
14. Gino Paolella
15. Cian Keegan
16. Preston Petrovitch
17. Cameron Young
18. Dylan Vermette
19. Michael Gough
20. Andrew Porter
21. Randell Steele Blake
22. Nolan Shelley
23. Jeke Gotegote



UBC

1. Nicholas Frost
2. Connor Sampson
3. Sam Turner
4. Liam Doll
5. Donald Carson
6. Owain Ruttan
7. Michael Smith
8. Nicholas Allen
9. Fraser Hurst
10. Jack Scher
11. Evan Norris
12. Adam McQueen
13. John Jubenvill
14. John Lan
15. Tighe Maxwell-Whiteley
16. Joshua Tweed
17. Bryce Worden
18. David Carson
19. Frank Carson
20. Harrison Smith
21. Niko Clironomos
22. Flynn Heyes
23. Matthew Ye


CASTAWAY WANDERERS 21 V U OF VICTORIA 43 @ 14:45 @ Windsor Park
Ref Saro Turner

The Vikes were all over this one and a slow start for CW in a 6 try to 3 romp for the students.

PREGAME

Editor: UVic have about 100 players practicing which is great news, enough for four teams but only two in leagues at the current time so they'll likely be looking for extra fixtures but their program depth will help as the season progresses. CW owned the Vikes last year in the head to matches, and the University sides are notorious for starting slow and finishing strong. Only worry on the CW roster is they usually include the bench and have only listed the first XV this week, no sign of Nathan Stewart their on field leader. They lost a few players to the Pride as well. It's good to see Luke Bradley finally back in his #8 role, that's where his national team future is and now he can bulk up to his pre-sevens form. A few new names to keep an eye on Filip Pasagic from Toronto Nomads spent a season in NZ with the Manawatu Turbos Academy team. Alex Kantypowicz is an unknown, seems to be a local player but new on the BC Premier scene and given the important #10 job. It's not the strongest CW roster we've seen so the bench would have been good to see. The Vikes feature Gavin Kratz at prop, James O'Neill at openside, Nick Carson at #8 and Lockie Kratz in the centres. They do have talent on the team. Not feeling confident on this one but will go with CW based on last year's performance and their strong home support. Prediction: CW by 4.

Aaron: Last season’s statistics suggest that CW should have the slight upper hand in the set piece aspect of the game. CW on average conceded less penalties than UVic, however, they were the league leaders at penalties given away at the breakdown. This might be an area UVic will want to exploit and capitalize on. Not much separates either team in regards to goal kicking accuracy. The last few times these teams have met they have been reasonably high scoring affairs, and you would expect UVic to want to play an attacking game. Last season saw UVic score a league leading 7.3 tries per game and were second in the league in regards to 3 or more consecutive passes put together in a phase of play. UVic have the slight edge over CW in relation to fewer missed tackles and handling errors on average. The major factor in the game may be the UVic changes in personel from last season to the Pride Academy and graduating players, league experience may come into play. Prediction: CW win 35-24 (+11)

Brett: Again university teams not having a ton of preparation time together, and Uvic losing Grady and Crosby. CW still packing a lot of offensive power. Expect the score to run up, likely both ways, in the last 20. CW +14

Robin: Uvic by 21-19 (+2)

Brian: CW by +19

UVic

1. Spencer Cooper Prop St. George’s School
2. Thomas Di Fiore Hooker Brentwood Secondary
3. Gavin Kratz Prop Oak Bay Secondary School
4. Nick Pearce Lock Argyle Secondary School
5. Mitchell Wainman Lock Banff Community School
6. Jackson Matthews Flanker Loyola Secondary School
7. James O’Neill Flanker Shawnigan Lake School
8. Nicholas Carson Number 8 Oak Bay Secondary School
9. Jenner Teufel Scrum Half Shawnigan Lake School
10. Logan Martin-Feek Fly Half Claremont Secondary School
11. Jarvis Dashkewytch Wing Lambrick Park Secondary School
12. Jonas Robinson Centre St. Michael’s University School
13. Lockie Kratz Centre Oak Bay Secondary School
14. Noah Bain Wing Yale Secondary School
15. Gabe Casey                Fullback        Nepean High School
16. Mostyn Findlay Centre Shawnigan Lake School
18. Denver Fatt Prop St. George’s School
19. Tom Heuser Flanker Sardis Secondary School
20. Liam Morrison Wing Earl Marriott Secondary
21. Ben Newhook Lock St. John’s
22. Carter White Hook Oak Bay Secondary School
23. Reece Tudor-Jones Back Shawnigan Lake School

CW



UBCOB RAVENS 54 V SEATTLE 8 @ 13:30 @ Jericho
Ref Christopher Assmus

Pretty much as expected as Ravens ran in 9 tries to 1 for Seattle. The two time defending champions look on track for a three-peat.

PREGAME

Editor: Ravens are the two time defending BC Premier champions, they've put Aaron McClelland at #10 which is an interesting move. Jorden Sandover-Best at #9, it could be a lethal halfback pairing. Chris Taylor is back at tighthead, a solid scrum performer. Brian Moylett has moved from his normal #8 to centre and pairs up with Colby Mason, another potentially explosive combination. It's a solid looking squad. Seattle feature some players who are also on the Seattle Seawolves extended roster like Cole Van Harn and Taylor Krumrei. Johnny Reid is a talented #10. Seattle historically have been strong at home but struggled a bit on the cross border road trips. They're starting off against last year's champions on the road so it won't be easy. Prediction: Ravens by 12.

Aaron: There are no stats on the Seattle to make a comparison. Ravens were slightly above the league average in scrum success on their own ball and will likely win 3 out of every 4 lineouts. Although the Ravens averaged 12 penalties per game, their breakdown discipline was below league average. Ravens conceded 314 points less than Seattle overall last season which could be the most important factor in the game. Prediction: Ravens win 34-18 (+16)

Brett: Seattle travelling early against a team firing on all cylinders lately. If they have some of their Seawolves players, Seattle may be very competitive. Ravens +16

Robin: Ravens by 44-22 (+22)

Brian: Ravens by +12

Ravens

1 Jake Mclachlan (i)
2 Matias Suez
3 Chris Taylor
4 James Carson
5 Conor Hamilton
6 Dan Cervino (i)
7 Patrick Richardson
8 David ODonoghue (i) (c)
9 Jorden Sandover-Best (RC)
10 Aaron Mclelland
11 Nolan McAllister
12 Brian Moylett (i)
13 Colby Mitch Mason (i)
14 Jef Vreys
15 Sean Hase
16 Neil Murphy (i)
17 Angus MacPhail
18 Mathew Chan
19 Niall Hannon (i)
20 Bryn Tucker
21 Sohaib Chaudhry
22 Kol Henrikson

Seattle

1. Alfred Taufuna
2. Jasper Bowen Shepherd
3. Danny Sonon
4. Ben Gustafson
5. Taylor Krumrei
6. Cole Van Harn
7. Tim Brogdon
8. Ryan Snider
9. Isaiah Chinen
10. Jonny Reid
11. Pierre Wood
12. William Stowers
13. Hirai Tsugunosuke
14. Caleb Nonoa
15. James Tuigilau
16. E Tiauli Halleluiah
17. Matthew Duncan
18. Hall Henry
19. Ryan Youngman
20. Potter Matt
21. Jenkins Jordan
22. Tristan Ingold
23. Maugard Nicolas


MERALOMA 18 V CAPILANO 24 @ 14:30 @ Connaught Park
Ref Harry Mason

The BCRU has this game reported incorrectly at first 21-17 for Lomas but made the correction, it was 24-18 for Caps. Caps were ahead 17-3, Lomas came back to go ahead 18-17 before Caps finished with a converted try. It was a 4 try bonus point for the Caps to give them a share atop the standings with Ravens and UVic.

PREGAME

Editor: Lomas finished bottom of the standings last year. They have a few familiar names, their openside Connor McCann played for the BC Bears this year. We'll have to see a few match results to evaluate how their form looks this year. For the Caps, good news, veteran Glen McKinnon has returned to action. Always a tough competitor he'll be a welcome addition at the #8 spot. A few players suited up with the Bears this summer, Neil Courtney, Johnny Franklin and Jordan Reid-Harvey. Chris Robinson is always solid at scrum half. The Lomas have home field advantage but the Caps should win this one. Prediction: Caps by 4.

Aaron: Last season Capilano had a high functioning set piece game which saw a 92% return on their scrum in comparison to a league low 71% from Lomas. The lineout was a league high for Caps at 89%, so if last seasons form continues Capilano should see the set piece as a position of strength going into the game. Caps conceded on average 3 fewer penalties per game than Lomas, and conceded fewer than their opponents on average at the breakdown. A league high goal kicking average of 84% also gives Caps the edge in this area of the game. Caps and Lomas both struggled to score tries last season, both clubs below the league average per game. The numbers would suggest that this could be a close fought battle in terms of the score board. The missed tackle and error count does not suggest that either team will see a significant advantage in this aspect of the game. Prediction: Capilano win 22-14 (+8)

Brett: Not sure how deep Lomas will be, Capilano sports enough men's teams to put out a cohesive unit early. Capilano by +12

Robin: Meraloma by 21-15 (+6)

Brian: Lomas by +5

Capilano

1 - Jesse Ryan
2 - Adrien Carcy
3 - Neil Courtney
4 - Joe Britt
5 - Rich Merinsky
6 - Jason de Freitas
7 - Jordan Reid-Harvey
8 - Glen McKinnon
9 - Chris Robinson (C)
10 - Jeremy Simon
11 - Ben Cameron
12 - Eligh Papin
13 - Johnny Franklin
14 - Jared Andrews-Almack
15 - Phillip Lelievre

Meraloma
1. Angelo Pepe
2. Scotty McGinley
3. Darren Du
4. Tom Barlow
5. Anton Bolezerov
6. Justin Fanselow
7. Connor McCann
8. James Ryan
9. Tom Vilojen
10. James Morgan
11. Hayes Bishop
12. Isaac Winter
13. Steff Evans
14. Rob Fallon
15. Dom Boyd
16. Jackson Bushell
17. Eugene van Neikerk
18. Dan Fumano
19. Mike Robinson
20. Billy Noonan
21. Olly Owen
22. Owain Davies
23. Antun Pico


VANCOUVER ROWING CLUB 17 V JAMES BAY AA 19 @ 14:30 @ Brockton Oval
Ref Shanda Mosher-Gallant

A close match, 3 tries apiece, with conversions the difference. Bays retain the Cox Cup.

PREGAME

Editor: The Bays had a tough season last year, they usually got the upper hand on the Rowers in years past but Rowers finished ahead of them in the standings and won the home match last year by +6. The Bays won the subsequent match at home and we expect that will be a pattern this year with the Bays getting stronger as the season progresses but the Rowers starting fast. The Rowers took down UBC in their opening match last year. The Rowers have added North Island product Doug Fraser to their roster in the centres. Fraser played with Austin last year in the MLR and with CW before that. Rowers also have Jordan Wilson Ross back in the roster, the 4 capped 30 year old would no doubt like another shot at the national team. JBAA have Jim de Goede lacing up the boots again as he was MIA for most of last season, he'll be a valuable addition to the second row. Cooper Coats at #10 will be a danger man and should keep the backline moving. We'll know more about the relative strength of the Premier sides after a couple of weeks but we'll go with history repeating itself and Rowers coming out of the blocks fast at home. Prediction: Rowers by 8.

Aaron: Rowers had the most successful scrum in the league last season on their own ball, with both teams being fairly equal and below the league average at the lineout. Rowers were 1 of 3 teams that averaged 12 penalties per game last season, the joint second highest in the league, with James Bay being slightly below the league average. James Bay were 12% more accurate when kicking for goal last year and I expect this trend to continue given some of the personnel in the team. Both teams struggled to score points in attack last year with very little difference between the two teams. Given the final league standing points differential this is likely to be a close game on the scoreboard. Prediction: James Bay win 19-14 (+5)

Brett: James Bay with a tough year last year sporting some #s troubles. Rowers putting a program in more consistently now. Possible word down the pipeline Rowers could be sporting a new, familiar center. Rowers +9

Robin: James Bay by 37-24 (+13)

Brian: Rowers by +18

Rowers

1 Josh Waller
2 Jason Carton ©
3 Ian Prendiville
4 Connor Hines
5 Colin Cooper
6 Niall McDonough
7 Niall Bermingham
8 Michael Cooke
9 Chris Nolan
10 Nick Wackwitz (VC)
11 Ryan Williams
12 Tom O'Hare
13 Doug Fraser
14 Morgan Branson
15 Jordan Wilson-Ross
16 Eddy Quinn
17 Robert Spearing
18 Tom Windows
19 Jack Warren
20 Kevin Nanne
21 Ray Bissonette
22 Joe Holland
23 Miighty Okafor

JBAA

1. Andrew McPherson
2. JC Fidinde
3. Blake Van Heyningen Cpt.
4. Jimmy de Goede
5. Fischer Kooman
6. Peter Masimo
7. Jake Slobodian
8. Carson O'Sullivan
9. Nathan Waldmann
10. Cooper Coats
11. Nate Tough
12. Kieran McAuley
13. Thomas Burton
14. John Buck
15. Aaron Evison


NANAIMO 26 V PACIFIC PRIDE 45 @ 14:30 @ May Bennett Park
Ref Max Freund

A close game in the first half 12-12 before the deeper bench and fitness of the Pride showed through for a comprehensive win in their first warmup match.

PREGAME

This is a warmup match and not part of the prediction contest but it will be interesting to see the result. Nanaimo suffered some large losses last year to expansive teams, losing by 40+ to UVic and CW on subsequent weekends. They also played some teams tough as the season progressed and they found their form, they ended up with 3 wins and finished ahead of Lomas in the standings. The Pride will no doubt aim to play expansive rugby with their backline talent. We hope to take this game in personally to make our own evaluation and gets some pics of the new Pride in action.

Pacific Pride

1 Morgan Macintyre
2 Dewald Kotze
3 Tyler Rowland
4 Nolan Howell
5 Tom Davidson
6 Reid Davis
7 Mason Flesch
8 Siaki Vikilani
9 Crosby Stewart
10 Will Kelly – Captain
11 D'shawn Bowen
12 Guiseppe Du Toit
13 Quinn Ngawati
14 David Richard
15 Thomas Isherwood
16 Nik Hildebrand
17 Liam Murray
18 Austin James
19 Ed Ilniki
20 Brennig Prevost
21 Brock Gallagher
22 Alex Russel

Nanaimo

1 Pat Milford
2 Tom Larder
3 Sawyer Barth
4 Max Brook
5 Alex O'Dell
6 Matt Weir
7 Zephyr Melnyk
8 Brad Marshall
9 Sam Fowler
10 Jordan Hooke
11 Ryan Bradley
12 Lachlan Donnelly
13 Mua Ulilelata
14 Gareth Pritchard
15 Stephen Gillies
16 Antonio Corbin
17 Ricky Keen
18 Makz Foot
19 Andrew Davidson
20 D’Artagnan Mallet
21 Sam Reimer
22 Matt Fraser
23 Cathal Long

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