BC Rugby Weekend of November 16th 2019

November 16 2019

BCRN 2019

BC Premier Weekend Results: Caps Sting Hornets; Pride Outscore Westshore; Ravens Defeat Burnaby; CW Edge Rowers

#3 hosting #12

A +33 result was greater than predicted by our panel but not unexpected considering the players available and the current form of the respective teams. Capilano in 3rd place with a 5-1-1 record while Nanaimo go to 1-6 and remain 12th place. Next week Nanaimo host CW while Capilano travel to Westshore.

Mark: Nanaimo have one win this season, at home against Westshore. Caps have only lost one match and that was to one of the league leaders UBC. Caps have their important #8-#9 combo in place with McKinnon and Robinson, their flyer Johnny Franklin in the backs, they look fully loaded. Nanaimo missing a few regular starters Zephyr Melynk, Pat Milford, Cathal Long, Mua Tiumafifi and Sam Fowler. It would have been a tough job for them with these players, it will a long shot without them. Prediction: Caps by 17.

Aaron: On average Nanaimo make 20 more tackles per game than Caps but still manage to maintain a 3% tackle completion advantage over their opponents this weekend (Caps 80% to Nanaimo 83%). Both teams have had a strong set piece game so far this season, the Nanaimo lineout has been a major foundation of their game with a 87% completion average on their ball (10% higher than the league average). Caps have given away 8 scrum penalties so far this season, is this an area that Nanaimo can exploit? Caps continue to have a remarkable goal kicking average at 93% which is well above the league average at 71%. Caps have been averaging 1 try more than Nanaimo in their games so far this season with 30.4 points per game. Nanaimo have averaged 2.8 tries and 19.5 points. Caps to win by 11

Brett: Nanaimo on the road again, against a pretty steady contender so far this season. Capilanos have been steady at home, taking down Burnaby earlier in the season. Expect more of the same. Caps +15

Robin: Caps 19-17 (Caps +2)

Brian: Caps to beat Nanaimo by 12 (Caps +12)

1 Sawyer Barth
2 Antonio Corbin
3 Cameron McKerrow
4 Zack Mayo
5 Matt Weir (c)
6 Alex Brown
7 Andreas Krawczyk
8 Alex O'Dell
9 Sam Reimer
10 Jordan Hooke
11 Brennan Bourchier
12 Lachlan Donnelly
13 Taylor de Souza
14 Max Brook
15 Ryan Bradley
16 Makz Foot
17 Rick Keen
18 Christian Harpe
19 D'Artagnan Mallet
20 Andrew Davidson
21 Aidan Finnegan
22 Gareth Pritchard
23 David Nuamah

1 - Jesse Ryan
2 - Callum Blair
3 - Mackenzie Mills
4 - Jordan Orr
5 - Christoph Stangl
6 - Jason de Freitas
7 - Jordan Reid-Harvey
8 - Glen McKinnon
9 - Chris Robinson
10 - Jeremy Simon
11 - Jared Andrews-Almack
12 - Cam Waddell
13 - Johnny Franklin
14 - Sam Franklin
15 - Phil Le Lievre
16. Giles Klaver
17. James Ritzema
18. Joe Britt
19. John Allen
20. Johnny Adams
21. Johnny-Ray Houston
22. Richard Merinsky
23. Reece Roberts

#7 hosting #11

The Editor nailed this result, a +1 in the prediction contest. Westshore put in a good defensive effort considering the firepower the Pride had on display. Good to see national coach Kingsley Jones at the match scoping out the Academy talent. Pride remain undefeated at 5-0, while Westshore drop to 2-5 and 11th place. Next week Westshore host Caps while the Pacific Pride travel to Seattle.

Mark: The Pride are undefeated this season but have only played four matches so far. They have a strong lineup and their outside threats D'Shawn Bowen and Anton Ngongo are great finishers. In the centres former Westshore player Quinn Ngawati will team up with veteran Guiseppe du Toit. There aren't any gaps in quality throughout the starting XV. Westshore have lost 3 in a row, they started strong with a win at home against Nanaimo, followed by another home win against Seattle but have lost a few key players and their form has plummeted. This could be a long afternoon for the host club. Prediction: Pride by 28.

Aaron: A local derby in for the Langford area, a number of Pride players will know this Westshore team well. Westshore have been struggling with their lineout having missed 15 of their own throws so far this season and have a 59% accuracy on their own ball. The Pride have missed 9 with an overall average of 80%. The Pride have the best defensive stats in the league, continuing to make more tackles than any other team and also have the highest completion % with 89%. Westshore average 9 more missed tackle per game and have a completion of 81%. Both teams have tried to play expansively but the Pride have been more efficient at breaking the line in attack with 3.3 linebreaks per game, Westshore have 1.8. Westshore will have to have more discipline in the game and bring down their 11.8 penalties per game to try and stop giving the Pride team the opportunity to gain a territorial advantage in the game. Notably, 25% of the Westshore penalties have been for foul play this season. With the Pride averaging 7 tries per game and Westshore 4 this should be a Pride win by 18

Brett: Westshore citing injury problems through the club, facing off against undefeated Pride. Not much to say here, likely one way traffic. Pride +38

Robin: Pride 47-12 (Pride +35)

Brian: Pride to beat Westshore by 36 (Pride +36)

1 Tobias Berg
2 Foster Dewitt c
3 Bryce McKinnon
4 Carter Fillion
5 Aidan McCleary
6 Andrew Foster
7 Jade Billington
8 Peyton Eagar
9 Matt Jones
10 Malcolm Klaver
11 Conrad Newell
12 Spencer Jones
13 Cody Gervais
14 Rylen Waugh
15 Isaac Gonevou
16 Phil Erb
17 Neil Hagerty
18 Tyler Symon-Burke
19 Gabe Evans
20 Ryan Waldriff
21 Spencer Dunstan-Adams
22 Keegan Edwards
23 Lucas Grosse

1. Liam Murray
2. Michael McCarthy
3. Nik Hildebrand
4. Marc-Antoine Ouellet
5. Thomas Davidson
6. Austin James
7. Edward Ilnicki
8. Siaki Vikilani
9. Crosby Stewart
10. William Kelly
11. D'Shawn Bowen
12. Guiseppe du Toit
13. Quinn Ngawati
14. Antonin Ngongo
15. Alexander Russell
16. Morgan MacIntyre
17. Dewald Kotze
18. Tyler Rowland
19. Taitusi Vikilani
20. Henriques Nhanala
21. Joshua Thiel
22. Brennig Prevost

#5 hosting #1

A +7 result was close to predictions. A 13-6 halftime score with a try apiece in the second half. Burnaby remain in top spot with the BP loss and go to 6-2 at 30 points. UBC away at the University championships are second at 6-1 and 29 points. The Ravens are in fourth at 5-2 and 25 points. Next week Burnaby travel to the Meralomas while Ravens travel to James Bay.

Mark: Burnaby have only lost one match this year and that was an upset loss to Capilano. Capilano have a strong forwards game led by a gritty #8, if Ravens can match up in the forwards against Burnaby they have some threats in the backline with Colby Mason and Aaron McLelland. The Reid Watkins v Jorden Sandover-Best battle at scrum-half should be epic. David Dinbandhu makes an appearance in the centres for Burnaby, getting the promotion from the Reserves team. It should be one of the best matches this weekend, a rematch of last year's final won 30-22 by Ravens. Prediction: Ravens by 8.

Aaron: This one should be very interesting, two teams that have done well so far this season. Both teams are above the league average in attacking gainline % (both clubs have 60%) and both have played an expansive style of rugby so far this season. Burnaby are averaging 11.6 continuity shots per game and put together a string of 3 or more passes on average 9.7 times per game. They have also averaged 3.4 linebreaks per game. In comparison, the Ravens average 13.2 continuity shots, 4.4 linebreaks and 3 or more passes 8.2 times per game. All of these attacking stats are above the league average. Burnaby’s defence continues to show strong numbers with an 86% tackle completion % (Ravens 83%) again both above the league average of 82%. Goal kicking stats are fairly even (Burnaby 74% and Ravens 71%). Ravens have the upper hand in the average number of tries scored with 7 in comparison to Burnaby’s 5.4. Ravens to win by 10

Brett: Definitely the highlight game of the week, or even the month. This will be a battle and really could swing either way depending how a few bounces or tackles go. A fully loaded ravens team is scary on offense, and the Burnaby side strong through the lineup 1-22. Ravens in the past seasons have had the upper hand. I see Burnaby keeping the ball, and taking this one. Burnaby +4

Robin: Burnaby 31-29 (Burnaby +2)

Brian: Ravens to beat Burnaby by 8 (Ravens +8)

1. Adrian Longbone
2. James Kelly
3. Chris Atkinson
4. Thomas Dear
5. Michael O'Toole
6. Lucas Albornoz
7. Joey Tomlinson
8. Domenic Baptista
9. Reid Watkins
10. Hayden Munck
11. Gino Paolella
12. David Dinbandhu
13. Ben McDougall
14. Dan Josok
15. Cian Keegan
16. Dylan Vermette
17. Kyle Perkins
18. Scott Mackay
19. Jeke Gotegote
20. Fuku Vikilani
21. Nolan Shelley
22. Randell Steele Blake
23. Andrew Porter

1. James Carson
2. Matias Suez
3. Chris Taylor
4. Cam McWilliam
5. Connor Hamilton
6. Simon Etheve (i)
7. David ODonoghue (c) (i)
8. Grant Crowell
9. Jorden Sandover-Best (RC)
10. Robert Jones
11. Sean Hase
12. Sohaib Chaudhry
13. Colby Mitch Mason (i)
14. Jef Vreys
15. Aaron Mclelland
16. Jake Mclachlan (i)
17. Angus MacPhail
18. Kol Henrikson
19. Niall Hannon (i)
20. Mathew Chan
21. Brian Moylett (i)
22. Tarzan Mac Kay Cantin

#13 hosting #9

The +3 CW win was closer than predicted by the panel. Jack McCarthy on the wing notching a hat-trick in the match. The result puts CW in 8th place at 3-5 and 18 points, still outside a top 6 playoff spot but there's half a season yet to play. Rowers go to 0-8 and remain in last place. Next week CW visit Nanaimo while Rowers have a bye.

Mark: CW having an inconsistent start to the season in accruing a 2-5 record, their 2 wins coming in the last 3 weeks but interspersed with a thumping at the hands of JBAA. The good news for them is they have a national team prop starting at tighthead this week, Jake Ilnicki coming off the bench last week but getting the start this week. They should dominate the sets which will give them a good platform to launch their attack. It seems they've settled on a James Pitblado at #9 and Fergus Hall at #10 combination for the halfbacks. It's one of their stronger lineups this season. The Rowers are yet to win a match out of 7 but have 3 bonus points. Former Canada players Doug Fraser and Jorden Wilson-Ross lineup in the backs for the Rowers so they have some firepower - it may not be enough. Prediction: CW by 12.

Aaron: According to the numbers we have gathered after 9 rounds of games, these are two clubs with a number of fairly even stats on paper. Both are below the league attacking gainline average of 59% (Rowers 54% and CW 53%) for the season so far. Both teams average 1.7 linebreaks per game and around 10 continuity shots. In defence Rowers missed on average 2 less tackles per game which puts Rowers slightly ahead in the overall tackle completion stat (Rowers 81% and CW 79%). The league average is 82%. Rowers have struggled in the lineout department, having missed 17 throws on their own ball to date with an overall average of 77%. CW are 10% more accurate with 87%. Both teams have struggled in the goal kicking stats this year (Rowers 58% and CW 54%). Rowers have averaged 2.4 tries per game with CW coming in at 4 tries per game. CW to win by 9

Brett: CW per week now, highs and lows. Big wins over Lomas and Westshore, both near in the lower end of the standings. Rowers too, near the cellar. On paper you'd expect another runaway but I believe the Rowers at home will keep this one tight. Should be interesting to see Doug Fraser have a go at his old club. CW +9

Robin: CW 19-12 (CW +7)

Brian: Castaway to beat Rowers by 6 (CW +6)

1. John Braddock
2. Fil Pasagic
3. Jake Ilnicki
4. Riley Ilnicki
5. Quinn Horton
6. Matt Sutherland
7. Nathan Stewart
8. Mike Finnemore
9. James Pitblado
10. Fergus Hall
11. Jack McCarthy
12. Lucas Bradley
13. Sion Ferguson
14. Balucci Kegode
15. Brandon Schellenberger
Cam Smith
Clay Thornber
Doug Wooldridge
Mike Makaroff
Kyle Hohert
Oliver Winser
Isaac Olson

1. Eddy Quinn
2. Jason Carton
3. Robert Spearing
4. Charles Suyker
5. George Richmond
6. Michael Cooke
7. Raymond Bissonette
8. Daniel O Brien
9. Kevin Foyle
10. Nick Wackwitz
11. Migthy Okafor
12. Joe Holland
13. Doug Fraser
14. Ryan Brett-Williams
15. Jordon Wilson-Ross
16. Josh Waller
17. Jack Warren
18. Colin Cooper
19. Christopher Nolan
20. Justin Parlato
21. Morgan Brinson
22. Gregory Crowe
23. Ian Prendiville

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