World Rugby Stats and Analysis on Canada v Tonga Match
World Rugby make available an analysis of the PNC matches for media and there’s some interesting stats to go through. We’ve listed some of them below. Canada lost both matches against Tonga in 2023 and only managed 7.5 points per match on average in those two games, their average in the PNC in the two matches they’ve played against Japan and USA is 21.5, so there’s sign of an improved attack. They’ve also given up an average of 41.5 points per match in this year’s PNC, so need to stiffen their defence.
CANADA FORM: TOP PACK, BLUNT ATTACK
Canada find themselves in the fifth-place play-off after finishing bottom of Pool B following two straight defeats at the hands of Japan (55-28) and USA (28-15).
No other team can hold a light to Canada at scrum time, as they have a 100% record on their own feed in 2024. However, they will need to find more of a clinical edge after only coming away with six tries from 23 visits into the opposition in this tournament.
TONGA FORM: TRAIL AND ERROR
Tonga find themselves in the fifth-place play-off after finishing bottom of Pool A, losing to Samoa (43-19) and Fiji (50-19)
Tonga were forced to play catch-up rugby in both, having fallen 29-0 behind at the start of the first half against Samoa and 19-0 inside 12 minutes against Fiji.
Stymied by a misfiring lineout, Tonga have struggled to build scoreboard pressure and have both the worst attack and defence in terms of tries and points scored/conceded.
Having lost all four of their games this year, Tonga will be desperate for a morale-boosting win.
World Rugby Bullet Points
- Tonga have won only one of their last eight Test matches (L7) – a 45-24 victory against Romania (8 October 2023 – Rugby World Cup
- Canada have lost their last 11 Test matches against opposition from Oceania by an average margin of 21.7 points per game; although, their most recent win in such fixtures was a 36-27 victory against Tonga (8 June 2013 – Pacific Nations Cup).
- Canada have made 236 carries in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024, the most of any team in the tournament; although, their 3.17 metres gained per carry is the second fewest of any team in the campaign (USA – 3.12 metres gained per carry).
- Tonga have made dominant contact on 26 tackles in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024 – at least six more than any other team in the tournament; in addition, they have made 31 successful defensive 22m exits – the joint-most of any team in the campaign (also Japan – 31).
- Tonga’s Harrison Mataele (12) and Canada’s Mason Flesch (12) are two of the three players to have won more lineouts (inc. steals) than any other players in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024 (also Theo McFarland – 12 for Samoa, inc. 4 steals).
- Canada duo Lucas Rumball (3) and Ethan Fryer (3) are two of the five players to have won more turnovers than any other players in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024; Canada are the only team with more than one representative in this regard.
- Canada’s Ethan Fryer (24) and Tonga’s duo Lotu Inisi and Fetuli Paea (20 each) have made the first contact on more tackles than any other players in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024.
- Andrew Quattrin (Canada) has made 15 carries per 80 minutes in the Pacific Nations Cup 2024, the second most of any player (min. 70 minutes played) in the tournament (Jamason Fa’anana-Schultz – 16 per 80 minutes for USA).
- Canada will move back into the world’s top 20 if they sign off on a winning note.
- Tonga cannot improve on their present position of 16th as there aren’t enough points on offer to catch Portugal.
REFEREE
Australian Nic Berry takes charge of the match, his 36th as a test referee.
The 40-year-old former scrum-half will have the honour of refereeing the Pacific Nations Cup 2024 final in Osaka, on Sunday 21 September.
Tonga Update from World Rugby
‘Ikale Tahi head coach Tevita Tu’ifua has made six changes to his starting XV – two of them positional – for Saturday’s fifth place play-off against Canada, including a second test start at blindside for 35-year-old flanker Siosiua Moala.
Tonga will once again be led by Ben Tameifuna, who starts his 10th consecutive test at tight-head. Meanwhile, replacement back Kafaikamoana Vaea is set for his test debut having been named on the bench.
Tonga (1-15): 1. Jethro Felemi, 2. Sosefo Sakalia, 3. Ben Tameifuna, 4. Harison Mataele, 5. Tevita Ahokovi, 6. Siosiua Moala, 7. Tupou Afungia, 8. Lotu Inisi, 9. Aisea Halo, 10. Patrick Pellegrini, 11. John Tapueluelu, 12. Fetuli Paea, 13. Fine Inisi, 14. Nikolai Foliaki, 15. Josiah Unga.
Replacements: 16. Penisoni Fineanganofo, 17. Salesi Tuifua, 18. Tau Koloamatangi, 19. Kelemete Finau, 20. Vutulongo Puloka, 21. Manusiu Paea, 22. Latu Akauola, 23. K. Vaea
Canada Update from World Rugby
Canada’s starting XV includes three news faces from the defeat to USA – as well as a host of positional changes – in blindside flanker Matthew Oworu, left wing Josiah Morra and full-back Cooper Coats.
Replacement prop Tyler Matchem will make his test debut if called upon from the bench.
Canada (1-15): 1. Calixto Martinez, 2. Andrew Quattrin, 3. Conor Young, 4. Kaden Duguid, 5. Mason Flesch, 6. Matthew Oworu, 7. Ethan Fryer, 8. Lucas Rumball, 9. Jason Higgins, 10. Peter Nelson, 11. Josiah Morra, 12. Ben LeSage, 13. Takoda McMullin, 14. Andrew Coe, 15. Cooper Coats.
Replacements: 16. Dewald Kotze, 17. Cole Keith, 18. Tyler Matchem, 19. Callum Botchar, 20. Siôn Parry, 21. Brock Gallagher, 22. Mark Balaski, 23. Talon McMullin.